2011 opened in annual hours, the dramatic changes in weather, the weather and we experience the close and direct contact of inflation. The same time, the weather can not but arouse our attention to this important factor. I believe that in this respect, seems to have these types of situations need to be clarified.
first drought in North China, Huanghuai that the impact of the main wheat producing areas in the end how much? The severe drought is obvious, but the actual extent of drought area to clear up. Statistics show that as of February 9, eight major producing province, an area of 11,595 mu of wheat affected by the drought. So, these statistics have any questions? Because the state has subsidized the affected areas, flood drought and other disaster situations are exaggerated in previous years are not uncommon. The reason why I ask the question, because the affected area of accurate statistics on food production and the direct impact on the macro-control efforts, there is no accurate baseline data, macro-control is also blind. More importantly, the current international speculation off the theme of drought is speculation the Chinese international cereal prices, if exaggerated drought in some places, inevitably exploited by lobbyists for the speculation, which in turn will push up domestic grain prices, increased domestic inflation. February 2009 the drought regulations promulgated by the state for concealed false drought disaster, which clearly defines the legal responsibilities. However, during this drought, few people have mentioned this oversight.
followed by the drought what role in the global inflation? Recently, a voice that, as long as the flow under control, reducing the currency to be brought under control inflation, other issues are not important, because inflation is a monetary phenomenon in the final analysis. Yes, these words are quite right, and even Friedman also said: formation process of inflation, the This means that the quantity of money in a leading role in the formation of inflation, but the importance can not be used to override another kind of importance, nor can it be to replace the simple theory of the complexity of reality. Food security is to deal with drought inflation an important part of the overall work, but also in 2011 the first anti-inflation campaign. At present it is necessary to continue to strictly control the currency, but also try to eliminate the upward pressure on food prices. These two are not contradictory, it should be parallel.
Third, the continuous snowfall
Obviously, someone like that into the interest rate channel, as Huang-Huai Region in North China entered the In fact, these two snow, with snow coming third, with interest rates really have a certain relationship. Continuous snowfall so small a drought mitigation, and then crop prices expected to ease slightly, leading to future inflation pressures ease ... ... So, I come to a less stringent Conclusion: This time the snow more than three times the equivalent of a small interest rate increase.
of drought mean? Although it is not snow, could not solve the problem, but in the timing, the snow came just in time. Because winter wheat in the winter in hibernation, not growth. It jointing, heading and filling all life processes such as solar terms, after warming. Now is in the winter wheat revived from the long, repeated snow, coupled with cloud cover at this time carried out using artificial rainfall on the growth of winter wheat is a right of the assistance. Of course, it comes as snow and does not cover all the areas hit by drought, drought and food security can not be relaxed.
13 early morning, North China and other places generally Huanghuai snow, which is 9 to 10 days following the second snow. According to weather forecast, rain and snow 14 after a brief rest, 15 to 16 will once again be making a comeback.
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